Good Ecological News

From today's Freep:

In a stunning sign of ecological recovery, beavers have returned to Detroit for the first time in perhaps a century....

"It's part of that larger story of ecological recovery," Hartig said, citing the return of many species to the Detroit River area in recent years. Those include sturgeon, whitefish, peregrine falcons, bald eagles, walleye, and, now, a beaver.

"If it's cleaner for them, it's cleaner for us, too," Hartig said...

The river's ecology is recovering, said Tim Payne, Southeast Michigan wildlife supervisor for the Michigan Department of Natural Resources.

"There's no question that having a cleaner river is having an impact on species coming back," he said.

Stock Market Prediction

My favorite economist/analyst is David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch. He makes a prediction which is referenced in the following snippet from a newsletter by John Mauldin:

Last week I said that 2009 as-reported earnings estimates for the S&P 500 would be dropping. 2008 earnings had dropped to $29.57 as I wrote the letter. They are now down to $28.60. One of my favorite analysts is David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch. His forecast for reported earnings for 2009 is now down to $28. That puts the P/E for the S&P 500 at 30.

He also projects "operating" earnings to be $55 for 2010. And, as he writes today:

"For those looking for a silver lining, at least we are going to have a deeper bottom to bounce off. Applying a classic recession-trough multiple of 12x against a forward EPS estimate of $55 would imply an ultimate low of 666 on the S&P 500, likely by October if our estimate of the timing for the end of the official downturn is accurate."

That is a 20% drop from today's close of 829.

Valentine's Dinner

Vote for Sam Seder to join MSNBC at 10:00 PM

http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/msnbc/msnbc_looking_to_add_new_10pmet_show_106545.asp

I'm In!

Lewis has added me as an authorized poster here. I'm honored and can't wait to start contributing. But I'll have to wait a bit as my lunch calls, followed by my job at Blue Cross of Michigan...

The Case against Moderation, Part 3

"We got the sense that he was very genuine," said Rep. Zach Wamp (R-Tenn.). But "if he comes and meets with us like that and it doesn't have an impact, it begins to hurt his credibility."

And, thus, we have it--the outlines of the trap that President Obama has tripped with his neck. This quote, taken from yesterday's Washington Post, betrays more plainly than I ever could, the folly of trying to reach across the aisle to make warm-and-fuzzy with the current stripe of Congressional Republicans. The circus tiger that for years has let you put your head in its mouth and remove it unharmed--but for a little drool that tends to get in your eyes--has now shut its yap--hard. With black suits, spotless white shirts, bleached smiles, and wipe-on/wipe-off suntans, Rep. John Boehner and his minions have made a sucker out of America's smartest man.

It was our President, with his ideology of moderation and compromise, that not only stuck his head in it, but also forced that foul mouth open. His promise of reaching across the aisle gave his opponents, unable to muster even a wisp of a smile during his Inauguration, the means to make meaningless his promise of "change we can believe in". All they had to do was to play along, like the team-players they had neither the inclination or the skills to be, and, when the time came to act-not-yak, unite behind their leader (Rush?) and vote in unanimous opposition to whatever it was that their President wanted. By voting to insure Obama's failure, while praising his "bipartisanship"--and, thus, appearing to be willing to compromise if only the terms were right--they could then say, as Rep. Wamp did, that it was Obama's ineffectiveness in attempting to gain their support--a clear failure of leadership--that was the problem.

It may have been a brilliant strategy for their party, if yet disastrous for the country. I can only hope and pray that the public will see through this cynicism and short-sightedness and punish the tiger by thrashing him within a inch of his life in November 2010.

The Purpose-Driven Saddleback Website

Last night, a couple of hours after posting the previous blog, I was watching The Rachel Maddow Show on MSNBC. (By the way, if you aren't already a devoted fan, you aren't a true-blue liberal.) She mentioned that John Aravosis had, on his blog, discovered that the website for Saddleback Church, home to the Rev. Rick Warren, had taken down language in the "We Believe" section stating that "unrepentant gays" would not be admitted into membership. While this is a step in the right direction, it is but a baby-sized one; if the church's policy remains the same--only clandestine--it is a step in the wrong direction.

I don't know if Saddleback made the decision to take down the offensive language due to any pressure from President-elect Obama's transition team or because of adverse publicity from Rachel Maddow, who made a humongous issue of it on Friday night. Whatever the motive, this symbolic action does not satisfy the need for real and meaningful compromise on the part of Rick Warren in return for the rare and elevated privilege of giving the spiritual message at the most momentous presidential inauguration since John F. Kennedy's. Obama should not be fooled.